Daddy is always right. Right? Right???

I love to read. When I was a kid, my favourite outing would be when my mum would go to Centrepoint, and leave me for an hour or two at the enormous Times Bookshop, with the equally vast MPH just across the same floor. 

It wasn't just books. I would read anything that had typeface on it. Random magazines lying around the house, brochures in the mail. I have vivid memories of consistently reading the ingredient list on cereal boxes in the morning while spooning milk into my mouth. 

This has ended up with me becoming a great collector of (mostly useless) facts and factoids. Having pointlessly and endlessly scrolled through the "Information" page on Championship Manager, I now know the names of a ridiculous number of English football grounds all the way through to the old Fourth Division. 

I can also identify the national flags of most countries, not because of Geography lessons but again because of football matches :D

My collection of assorted trivia makes me the internally appointed authority in family discussions on everything from blockchain technology, trigonometry and microbiology, to language, world history and economics, to religion, finance and law. 

From the early years, my children have become used to the refrain "Ask Daddy" when they are curious about something, and even my wife directs them my way, even though they are adults now. 

Now, I'm obviously not an expert on everything. On the contrary, I probably only know just enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about, while actually being completely wrong about any number of things! But most of time, I've gotten used to winning arguments and "wanna bet?" moments with my kids.

A couple of months ago, we went to a restaurant that had a little in-house promotion while you eat. They give you two dice, and tell you, if you roll a 4, 5 or 6, you get a little prize, like a free drink or chicken wings. 

So I said to my kids - those aren't bad odds. 11 different possibilities (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 and 12). So our odds of rolling 4, 5, or 6 are three out of the 11 possibilities.

Everyone nodded at first. But a moment later, my son said, uh, no Daddy, it's not 3 out of 11. I retorted, of course it is - 3 winning scenarios out of 11 possibilities. And he insisted, no.

The odds of rolling 2 are smaller than rolling 3, which are smaller than rolling 4, which are smaller than rolling 5 etc. It peaks at 7, then becomes smaller as it heads back to 12. So your odds of rolling 4, 5 or 6 are less than you think.

And I said, no lah, what are you talking about. My mind just couldn't process it, so I asked ChatGPT (in an attempt to prove my son wrong), and it gave me the probability distribution for rolling two 6-sided dice. My son was right and I was wrong.

I don't know about the more statistically minded people among you who are thinking right now "of course lah, don't be stupid", but to me, this was absolutely mindblowing, because as a kid I used to play games that required rolling various combinations of dice: 20, 12, 10, 8, 6 and even 4-sided. 

Sometimes the rules would require you to roll 2d10 instead of 1d20 (two rolls of a 10-sided die vs. one roll of a 20-sided die). It never occurred to me that the probabilities are vastly different.

The probability of rolling a 20 on a 20-sided die is 5% (1 result out of 20 possibilities), because there are equal probabilities of rolling any particular number on a 20-sided die. 

But the probability of rolling a 20 on two 10-sided dice is just 1% (10% times 10% = 1%). The probabilities are crowded toward the middle, and narrow towards the ends. If I'd known that, I would have made so many different game decisions!

My wife and kids burst out laughing at me over the dinner table, realising that I was so unused to being wrong that I was rendered momentarily speechless.

You might think I was embarrassed, but actually, I'm always super thankful for these moments! 

First, they show me that my children are becoming more than me. I remember very clearly the day my daughter first beat me in Scrabble, with the two of us sitting on the floor next to the coffee table one weekend morning. 

And now I'll always remember the day my son exposed my faulty understanding of statistics in a Dancing Crab restaurant with prawn shells scattered all around :D

Second, these times remind me that I can be absolutely wrong about the things I've believed in for years. 

I really treasure these eureka moments. They remind me to be teachable, to look at the evidence and thoroughly investigate what I believe - everything from the basis for my investment decisions, to the way I need to lead (and let others lead) in my workplace and in my ministry, to what constitutes good husbanding and parenting (which changes as we and our children grow and change). 

These moments when I'm provably wrong remind me, even in matters of faith, to keep being robust about the "why" I believe. 

Faith is essential. After all, Hebrews 11:1 tells us that "faith is the assurance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen.

But this doesn't mean we should make room for, or excuse woolly thinking! In fact, it's especially important to be clear-headed in my understanding of the basis for God's existence, His character and what He is speaking into my life. 

The apostle Peter encourages the reader in 1 Peter 3:15 

Always be prepared to give an answer to everyone who asks you to give the reason for the hope that you have. But do this with gentleness and respect.

The apostle Paul teaches Timothy in 2 Timothy 4:2-4

Preach the word; be prepared in season and out of season; correct, rebuke and encourage - with great patience and careful instruction. For the time will come when people will not put up with sound doctrine. Instead, to suit their own desires, they will gather around them a great number of teachers to say what their itching ears want to hear. They will turn their ears away from the truth and turn aside to myths.

In other words, I must have prepared, sensible, defensible reasons for the hope I have. I must be prepared to correct and be corrected, because otherwise the natural tendency is just to hear the things we want to hear, and turn from hard truths to comforting myths.

So - Daddy is always right? Hardly. And thank goodness for that!

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